Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science - Hardcover
$37.95
Skip to product information
Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science - Hardcover
$37.95
by Aubrey Clayton (Author)
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach--that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information--in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data--and how to fix it.Author Biography
Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics at the Harvard Extension School. He holds a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in the New York Times, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe.
Number of Pages: 368
Dimensions: 1.18 x 9.29 x 6.14 IN
Publication Date: August 03, 2021
Details
This product is crafted with quality materials to ensure durability and performance. Designed with your convenience in mind, it seamlessly fits into your everyday life.
Shipping & Returns
We strive to process and ship all orders in a timely manner, working diligently to ensure that your items are on their way to you as soon as possible.
We are committed to ensuring a positive shopping experience for all our customers. If for any reason you wish to return an item, we invite you to reach out to our team for assistance, and we will evaluate every return request with care and consideration.
