Forecast Verification - A Practioner's Guide inAtmospheric Science 2e - Hardcover

by Ian T. Jolliffe (Editor), David B. Stephenson (Editor)

Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.

Reviews of first edition:

"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)

"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)

NEW to the second edition:

• Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
• New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts
• Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings
• Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts
• Includes new Appendix on Verification Software

Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories - see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Back Jacket

Forecast Verification
A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

SECOND EDITION

For more than 100 years, meteorologists have been making forecasts of weather and climatic events. In order to judge the quality of these forecasts and improve forecasting systems, scientists working in this fi eld have developed and applied many diff erent verifi cation and evaluation techniques and scores. Forecast verification is concerned with judging how good these systems and forecasts are.

Forecast Verifi cation: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal to professional practitioners, researchers and postgraduates. Each chapter is clearly presented by a variety of leading experts in the fi eld while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. Th e book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.

• Practical and expert advice using real life examples to illustrate techniques
• Clear, easy to read style
• Completely updated chapter on the verifi cation of spatial forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
• Separate chapters on probability forecasts and ensemble forecasts
• New chapter on warnings and forecasts of extreme or rare events
• New chapter on seasonal and climate forecasts
• Written by leading contributors in the fi eld

Reviews of fi rst edition:

"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 2004)

"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, January 2005)

"...a mandatory acquisition for those who have an interest in forecast evaluation..." (International Journal of Forecasting, April-June 2006)

Author Biography

Editors

Ian T. Jolliff e and David B. Stephenson, both at the University of Exeter, UK