China's Futures: Scenarios for the World's Fastest Growing Economy, Ecology, and Society - Hardcover

by James Ogilvy (Author), Peter Schwartz (Author)

Da China ein Fünftel der Weltbevölkerung stellt, wird es nicht nur einen gro en Einflu auf den Weltmarkt ausüben, sondern auch wesentlich auf die Volkswirtschaften Europas und Amerikas einwirken. James Ogilvy und Peter Schwartz stellen in "China's Future" drei faszinierende Szenarien zu Chinas Zukunft vor. Szenario Nr. 1 basiert auf einer dezentralisierten stadtbezogenen Wirtschaft, Nr. 2 zeigt die Vetternwirtschaft als Ausgangspunkt der neuen Wirtschaft und Nr. 3 zeichnet China, wie es im Sumpf der Korruption versinkt. Die Autoren analysieren ganz genau, welche Auswirkungen jede einzelne dieser Möglichkeiten auf die Weltwirtschaft hätte. Es bleibt nur die Frage unbeantwortet, für welchen Weg sich China entscheidet.

Front Jacket

According to the World Bank, more than 170 million people have risen out of poverty in China in the last twenty years--more than anywhere, in any period, in the history of the world. China's markets have opened to the West and the nation has begun to accept foreign partnerships and investment as well. Already China is the world's third largest economy and America's biggest trading partner in Asia. The path China takes over the coming decades will have a profound impact on business and the economy in the United States and around the world. In this book, two experts in scenario development present three versions of what China's future might look like and what that will mean for the governments and companies that will be doing business with or in China. James Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz have established international reputations as pioneers of scenario development--a blend of research, trend analysis, and well-tutored imagination that has become an integral part of strategic planning for many of today's top companies. Their clients include Royal Dutch/Shell, AT IBM, and Motorola. In this book, they draw on a range of studies conducted for companies anxious to understand the future consequences of the decisions they're making today with respect to China.The authors present their scenarios in an absorbing narrative form, like histories written twenty years from now. They explain the predetermined elements, assumptions, and variables that underlie each scenario. They also draw implications and make suggestions about how companies can use each scenario to plan business strategy. Their insights into China's future will help global business managers, strategists, and government policy professionals prepare for what many predict will be the Asian Century.

Back Jacket

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one-fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build sound business strategies for years to come.

Author Biography

JAMES OGILVY and PETER SCHWARTZ are partners in Global Business Network (GBN), a consulting and research firm that is devoted to helping clients develop business strategies that fit the emerging realities of global markets. They are responsible for the widespread use of business scenarios, a process they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View.